Intense cyclones form frequently in the Mediterranean region, with the potential to cause damage to life and property when they hit highly populated coastal areas. Cyclone impacts are caused by the associated strong winds, flash flooding and storm surge. The social and economic impacts are not limited to the Mediterranean area, as cyclones forming in the region can affect Central Europe. While the skill of weather models to forecast such events has dramatically improved over the last decade, the seasonal predictability of Mediterranean cyclones lags behind due to the limitations on horizontal resolution in probabilistic forecasts requiring a large ensemble of simulationss. Improving the climate prediction at a seasonal scale of those extreme events would be of great benefit for society, enabling better disaster risk management and reducing the economic losses they cause. A better prediction of climate extremes would also directly benefit a number of economic sectors such as the insurance and re-insurance industry. The ambition of the CYCLOPS project is to use Artificial Intelligence techniques to enhance the prediction skills of Mediterranean cyclones in a state-of-the-art Seasonal Prediction System.
24 months from 01/07/2022 to 30/06/2024
General objectives
The aim of this project is to improve the predictability of intense Mediterranean cyclones combining advanced artificial intelligence techniques and a state-of-the-art dynamical seasonal prediction system. The project will not only contribute to the knowledge of climate extremes predictability, but also lead to the implementation of a pre-operational dynamical- statistical prediction system with the potential to be extended to include different extremes.
CMCC role
CMCC is the beneficiary of the Grant (HORIZON-MSCA-2021-PF-01) and will lead all the project’s activities.
Activities
CYCLOPS will both exploit state-of-the-art methodologies and develop new methods going beyond the state of the art. The following activities are planned:
- Identification of Mediterranean cyclones large scale drivers
- Development of AI-enhanced cyclone prediction
- Implementation the AI-enhanced SPS system
- Dissemination and Stakeholder engagement
Expected results
By integrating AI into seasonal predictions, CYCLOPS will:
- generate new knowledge on the processes involved in Mediterranean cyclone formation;
- pave the way for the implementation of a beyond the state-of-the-art integrated dynamical-statistical operational seasonal prediction system;
- lead to measurable societal benefits by improving Mediterranean cyclones seasonal predictions and feeding the resulting information to the relevant stakeholders.