Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

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Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

La divisione RAAS unisce un team interdisciplinare di economisti, scienziati ambientali, ingegneri e pianificatori territoriali con esperienza nel campo dell’analisi del rischi ambientali e socio-economici, e nella definizione di strategie e politiche di adattamento.

Le sfide poste nell’ambito della ricerca sono:

  • Analisi degli impatti degli eventi climatici estremi e delle relative implicazioni sociali ed economiche;
  • Valutazione dell’efficacia di soluzioni basate sulla natura (es. infrastrutture verdi) e dei loro benefici per la riduzione dei disastri naturali e l’adattamento al cambiamento climatico;
  • Sviluppo di indici integrati di vulnerabilità e rischio legati al cambiamento climatico, a supporto della definizione di politiche di sviluppo sostenibile;
  • Sviluppo di strumenti di supporto alle decisioni e servizi climatici per guidare la definizione di strategie di adattamento al cambiamento climatico in diversi settori (pubblici e privati)
  • Definizione di metodologie di analisi multi-rischio che permettono di valutare impatti cumulativi e rischi interconnessi dal punto di vista spaziale e temporale;
  • Valutazione dell’effetto di fattori climatici e non climatici (es. uso del suolo, scenari di sviluppo demografico e socio-economico) sulla concentrazione e distribuzione ambientale di inquinanti, e sui relativi rischi per gli ecosistemi acquatici, la salute e la sicurezza;
  • Supporto ai responsabili politici (a scala Europea, nazionale, regionale e locale) nell’attuare in modo consapevole decisioni ed interventi per la gestione dei disastri naturali e l’adattamento al cambiamento climatico con maggiore rapidità ed efficacia.

La ricerca ha come priorità tre grandi temi che rispecchiano le principali unità di ricerca.

Direttore di Divisione

Silvia Torresan

Manager di Divisione

Clara Beffa

Contatti

Venice: Edificio Porta dell’Innovazione – Piano 2,
via della Libertà 12 – 30175 Venezia Marghera (VE)
[email protected]
+39 041 2346080

Unità di ricerca

Research Unit Leader
Jeremy Pal

This research unit seeks to identify and characterize the complex interplay between natural and human-induced hazards, its consequences on socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability, and how they may be influenced in a changing climate. Key areas include: analyzing spatial and temporal variability of climate hazards, including both rapid-onset events (e.g., floods, heatwaves, and extreme winds) and slow-onset events (e.g., drought and sea level rise); assessing their interaction with socioeconomic impacts, damages and vulnerabilities in present and future risk pathways; co-creating climate services that enhance resilience, adaptive capacity, and informed decision-making. The research unit employs a diverse array of methods and tools, including composite indices, flood damage models, statistical data analysis, remote sensing, and machine learning. By integrating expertise from environmental engineering, environmental science, social sciences, and economics, the unit addresses complex challenges with an interdisciplinary approach.

Research Unit Leader
Andrea Critto

This research unit focuses on analyzing the multifaceted impacts of climate change on environmental quality, ecosystem health and the essential services they provide to society. It focuses on understanding the direct and indirect effects of climate-induced changes on environmental risks, including impacts on water quality, soil health and ecosystem services across upstream and downstream areas. Key research topics include assessing the synergistic impacts of climate and anthropogenic stressors on contaminants in environmental matrices, exploring vulnerabilities of ecosystems and species, and evaluating adaptive management strategies to enhance ecosystem resilience. The research develops impact and data driven models to assess how climate change may determine environmental risks and affect the supply of ecosystem services. It emphasizes the importance of incorporating climate and land use changes scenarios into sustainable decision-making for natural resource management and climate change adaptation.

Research Unit Leader
Silvia Torresan

This research unit focuses on developing advanced computational methods and tools to understand the interactions between multiple risks – such as climate, environmental, and socio-economic threats – that often interact, compound, or amplify each other. New scientific developments in the fields of AI, Machine Learning (ML), network science and agent based models, to name a few, have the potential to change the paradigm of  multi-risk assessment by providing a systemic perspective through the analysis. Through these innovations, the research unit provides: analysis of the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g., floods, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires) and their cascading impacts across sectors (e.g. ecosystem, infrastructure, communities) and regions; integration of diverse data sources (e.g. satellite observations, environmental monitoring, climate and social media data) to reconstruct risks from past events and gain a comprehensive understanding of risk drivers and points of failure; future impacts and risks projections under uncertain climate and socio-economic conditions, to detect emerging risk patterns and implement climate stress tests. The outcomes of the research are used to provide critical support to decision-makers in minimizing climate risks, enhancing system resilience and ensuring a thorough quantification of uncertainties in complex multi-risk landscapes.

Research Unit Leader
Veronica Casartelli

In a fast-changing risk landscape, effective risk governance is crucial to achieve transformative changes and increase just resilience. To ensure policy coherence, this research unit focuses on the governance of climate and disaster risk management (DRM), by addressing disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and Sustainable Development policies and practices. Based on mixed methods (e.g. storylines, social network analysis), this stream of research is devoted to define plausible future scenarios and evaluate key multi- and systemic risks with the final aim to stress test governance systems and to develop transformative resilience pathways. A strong effort is focused on building robust science-for-policy ecosystems, developing tools to foster evidence-informed policymaking, and creating innovative strategies and plans, including through stakeholders engagement and participatory processes. The research line aims to also provide advice to public entities and international organisations on the achievement of global and regional objectives, such as the Sendai framework targets and the Union Disaster Resilience Goals, through the integration of scientific knowledge in the entire DRM cycle.

Research Unit Leader
Elisa Furlan

This research line focuses on supporting societal transformative change by utilizing models and tools enabling broader integration of stakeholder and decision-maker visions, alongside scenario planning. It aims to foster a shift in mindset and behavior toward forward-looking and adaptive planning, confronting, and transforming climate adaptation pathways for a more resilient and sustainable future. Particular focus is placed on understanding the connections between ecosystems, the services they deliver, and the application of Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) to tackle climate change and other environmental and societal challenges. This approach aims to shape transformative adaptation pathways across diverse landscapes and critical community systems where interactions between humans and the environment occur. At its core, this research line aims to quantify and optimize the NBS effectiveness in climate change adaptation (CCA), disaster risk reduction (DRR), and climate change mitigation from economic, social, and cultural perspectives. Interdisciplinary approaches across environmental and social sciences, economics, and engineering, along with collaboration among researchers, policymakers, spatial planners, and communities, are central to facilitating transformative adaptation planning.

Research Unit Leader
Jaroslav Mysiak

This research unit aims to explore and assess the practicality of pioneering economic and financial tools dedicated to the sustainable management of natural resources and disaster risk mitigation, while advancing risk finance, insurance, and investment solutions. It investigates innovative business strategies and models designed to accelerate the transition towards a resilient and environmentally sustainable economy. Key scientific questions focus on identifying gaps and opportunities in fostering innovative economic and financial instruments for natural resource management and disaster risk finance, examining how green finance mechanisms can scale impact through climate risk integration, and understanding the factors influencing the effectiveness of these instruments across different geopolitical and socio-economic contexts. Additionally, the line addresses emerging business innovation strategies that significantly contribute to a resilient, green economy and seeks to categorize these strategies into sustainable taxonomies to enhance organizational capabilities.

Research Unit Leader
Vuong Pham

This cross-cutting research unit aims to explore advanced big data sources and new technologies for environmental monitoring, climate, and Earth observation to provide timely support for sound climate risk assessment and management approaches and is transversal to the other RAAS research units. It focuses on scouting global open datasets for near real-time hazard, impact and disaster information while developing standardized procedures for efficient data sharing and management. The research unit seeks to enhance data accuracy by using new technologies, including low-cost sensors and real-time systems, and aims to strengthen in-house data processing capabilities. The research will uncover trends and develop metrics for monitoring climate change impacts by employing statistical and Geographical Information System (GIS)  tools. Also, this research line explores the optimal utilization of global environmental, social-economic, and media datasets for real-time insights, the creation of standardized practices to improve data management efficiency, and the adoption of preprocessing techniques to ensure accurate data handling. Additionally, this research line will identify indicators for effectively monitoring climate change impacts and will involve the exploration of big data for climate risk, standardized data collection and management, supporting climate adaptation and decision-makers.

Research Unit Leader
Elisa Calliari

This research unit aims to bridge the gap between science and policy to enhance evidence-based environmental and climate change policymaking. It addresses governance at various scales, from local to international levels, focusing on the development of assessment products that synthesize and communicate scientific and technical knowledge to policymakers. Key topics include disaster risk reduction and management, climate risk assessment, adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage. The research provides scientific and technical analysis to inform negotiations and policy development in contexts such as the UNFCCC, G20, G7, and the Barcelona Convention. Collaboration with public institutions, academia, and research entities is emphasized to develop frameworks, tools, and best practices that support evidence-informed policymaking. Additionally, it involves activities by the expert team supporting the Italian Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security in climate change negotiations and the role of IPCC Focal Point for Italy. Key links include partnerships with the European Commission, EEA, Civil Protection Mechanism, UNDRR, UNFCCC, IPCC, and many others.

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