Exploiting the experience gained in several European projects, the CMCC has developed a seasonal forecasting system based on the global coupled model CMCC-CM. The seasonal predictions are performed every month, producing a 9-member ensemble integrations conducted with the coupled model for the following 6 months. In the forecasting system currently in use (CMCC-SPS2), the atmospheric initial conditions are taken form the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-term Weather Forecasts) re-analyses ERA-interim, whereas the oceanic initial state is specified using the CMCC ocean analyses. The atmospheric initial state is then properly perturbed in order to generate the set of 9 different initial conditions needed for the ensemble integrations.
References:
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- Alessandri A., Borrelli A., Masina S., Cherchi A., Gualdi S., Navarra A., Di Pietro P., Carril A. The INGV-CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: improved ocean initial conditions, 2010, Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 138, No. 7. 2930–2952
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