Introduction
The ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement goals has led to the realization that a rapid and full decarbonization of the economy is required, involving a structural transition of the current economy and society. With the rise of quantified policy targets, policy packages, and consideration of multiple dimensions and sectors, Integrated Assessment Models with their ability to consider complex relationships and provide calibrated numerical results have become ever more important in the last decade.
The PRISMA project aims to bring these models to the next level by focusing on four key areas of improvement, namely the representation of distributional justice and efficiency, innovation and finance, climate impacts and land-use implications, and lifestyle change and circularity. In these four key areas we will improve existing large-scale IAMs and sectorial models, and consider the linking of different models where applicable. Two cross-cutting shared themes across these areas are the improvement of the temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis, and the representation of disruptive and structural change in the economy. Notably we will increase the spatial granularity with a focus on Europe, and look at the yearly and in particular near term detailed modeling of rapid decarbonization pathways.
The extensive model development will be co-designed through an interactive stakeholder engagement process from the beginning, and focus on model openness and usability to ensure the stakeholder and policy relevance. Moreover, PRISMA will focus in its application on the analysis of the spectrum of Fit for 55 package policies of the EU developing focalized robust and resilient Net zero pathways and assess the uncertainty around key variables and outcomes. PRISMA will also provide key insights to international climate assessments, a large number of open modelling tools and databases, including capacity building and dissemination activities for all countries.
General aims
The PRISMA project aims to bring Integrated Assessment Models to the next level by focusing on four key areas of improvement, namely the representation of distributional justice and efficiency, innovation and finance, climate impacts and land-use implications, and lifestyle change and circularity. In these four key areas we will improve existing large-scale IAMs and sectorial models, and consider the linking of different models where applicable. Two cross-cutting shared themes across these areas are the improvement of the temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis, and the representation of disruptive and structural change in the economy. Notably we will increase the spatial granularity with a focus on Europe, and look at the yearly and in particular near term detailed modeling of rapid decarbonization pathways.
CMCC role
CMCC will be in charge of the coordination of the project, and will be involved in all work-packageg. In particular, CMCC will lead WP6 on “Robust and resilient climate mitigation and adaptation pathways”, WP7 on “Management and Dissemination”, Task 2.3 on “Distributional and social impacts of mitigation policies”, Task 3.4 on “Modelling technological progress and development”, Task 3.5 on “Quantifying financing and innovation needs on the road to net zero”, Task 6.1 on “Integration of impacts and adaptation”, Task 6.3 on “Scenario pathways: an expanded exploration of futures”, Task 6.4 on “Policy synthesis – impact assessment of updated national, EU, and international climate policies”, Task 7.1 on “Administrative coordination”, Task 7.2 on “Scientific coordination”, Task 7.3 on “Monitoring and quality assurance”, Task 7.4 on “Scientific dissemination, networking and collaboration”.
Activities
PRISMA will follow five guiding principles: (1) embed stakeholder engagement and co-production across the project (2) utilise a large suite of IAMs of different types and scopes to further develop, improve, and apply them for common policy analysis and Net-zero pathway development; (3) focus on Europe and current (Fit for 55/European Green Deal) and planned climate and environmental policies; (4) Improve the spatial and temporal scales of modelling tools and consider in particular societal change in terms of behaviour, structural change in the economy; (5) release the developed new modules along with transparent and accessible documentation and use it in capacity building activities.
Expected results
PRISMA brings together the leading modelling teams in Europe, creating an ensemble of 14 diverse IAMs that span a large set of theoretical frameworks, process detail, spatial, temporal and technology granularity, and policy relevance. Moreover, it integrates a leading team in empirical assessment and a stakeholder engagement partner with strong ties to large networks of stakeholders, including the European Institutions. PRISMA has three main goals:
1. To advance the science of integrated assessment modelling towards more societally relevant process representation and evaluation.
2. To strengthen the empirical basis of modelling through exploitation of new data sources and empirical research.
3. To make models more policy-relevant and trustworthy through an active engagement with relevant stakeholders, policy makers, and an open-science approach.
Partners
- 2 PIK – POTSDAM-INSTITUT FUR KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG EV (DE)
- 3 IIASA – INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE (AT)
- 4 PBL – MINISTERIE VAN INFRASTRUCTUUR EN WATERSTAAT (NL)
- 5 E3M – E3-MODELLING AE (EL)
- 6 ENPC – ECOLE NATIONALE DES PONTS ET CHAUSSEES (FR)
- 6.1 CNRS – CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS (FR) – Affiliated Entity
- 6.2 AGROPARISTECH INSTITUT NATIONAL DES SCIENCES ET INDUSTRIES DU VIVANT ET DE L’ENVIRONNEMENT – AGROPARISTECH (FR) – Affiliated Entity
- 7 BRUEGEL – BRUEGEL AISBL* (BE)
- 8 Wise – WISEEUROPA – FUNDACJA WARSZAWSKI INSTYTUT STUDIOW EKONOMICZNYCH I EUROPEJSKICH (PL)
- 9 SMASH – SOCIETE DE MATHEMATIQUES APPLIQUEES ET DE SCIENCES HUMAINES (FR)
- 10 UNIGE – UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE CH – Associated Partner
- 11 ETH – EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH (CH) – Associated Partner
- 12 PSI – PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUT (CH) – Associated Partenr
- 13 UOX – THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD (UK) – Associated Partner
- 14 UCAM – THE CHANCELLOR MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE (UK) – Associated Partner