The Ocean plays a crucial role in the global C cycle, taking up approximately 25% of the CO2 we emit to the atmosphere, and thus slowing the rate of climate change. The future trajectory of this sink will affect the timing and intensity of the modifications to human processes that we need to undertake in order to stabilise atmospheric CO2 at 450ppm.
Our ability to measure and model this sink is limited (evidenced by significant discrepancies between measured and modelled C uptake) with the current frontier area of research being a suite of biological processes related to higher trophic level behaviour within the so called biological C pump. This involvement of higher organisms suggests that human activities (fishing, energy and mineral extraction) has the capacity to affect the ocean C sink however we lack the ability to quantitatively link direct human pressures and ocean C storage. Ocean ICU will measure these key processes and evaluate their overall significance, transferring those that are important into models that inform the IPCC process and in this way contribute to resolving the observed model data mismatch of Ocean C sink estimates.
We will use the fundamental knowledge we acquire around biological systems to evaluate the ability of human interventions in the ocean to alter the carbon cycle and produce management tools that allow the tension between resource extraction and C storage to be addressed. This component will involve extensive dialogue with end users and stakeholders and lead to a Decision Support Tool that will constitute a major contribution to our ability to deliver the Green Deal by allowing us to ask questions around how to manage fisheries and resource extraction in a changed ocean in 50 years time.
60 months from 01/11/2022 to 31/10/2027
General aims
General objectives:
- Explore the role of key organisms across basin scales and quantify the past, current and future state of the ocean C cycle, with a particular focus on the Biogeochemical Carbon Pump.
- Use the new understanding developed in the project to give us increased predictability of the ocean carbon cycle, particularly around the role of marine pelagic and benthic invertebrate and vertebrate C.
- Incorporate the new knowledge into modelling tools (regional, basin scale and global earth system models) to resolve and quantify the importance of key biological processes on regional and global C cycles under a range of climate pathway scenarios and thus support the international intergovernmental architecture relevant for climate and ocean management.
- Develop a suite of tools to predict the impact of resource extraction processes on the contemporary ocean C cycle, the optimal measurement of the Ocean C cycle and build Decision Support Tools to predict the impacts of industrial processes in a future ocean.
CMCC role
CMCC participates in WP1, WP6
Activities
In this project CMCC will develop new parametrization of the marine carbon cycle based on the knowledge emerging from the analysis of observational data and incorporate these into CMCC’s Earth System Model for an improved understanding of the role of the marine carbon cycle in the global carbon budget and climate change.
Expected results
An updated and improved carbon cycle for CMCC’s next generation Earth System Model.
Coordinating organization:
- NORCE NORWEGIAN RESEARCH CENTRE AS (NORCE),
Partner
- DANMARKS TEKNISKE UNIVERSITET (DTU);
- BOLDING & BRUGGEMAN APS (BB);
- HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR OZEANFORSCHUNG KIEL (GEOMAR)
- COMMISSARIAT A L ENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES (CEA);
- MARINE INSTITUTE (MI);
- FONDAZIONE CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEOSUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI (CMCC);
- HAVFORSKNINGSINSTITUTTET (IMR);
- WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY (WMU);
- SEASCAPE BELGIUM (SSBE);
- UNIVERSIDAD DE LAS PALMAS DE GRAN CANARIA (ULPGC);
- AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DE INVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS (CSIC);
- UNIVERSITE D’AIX MARSEILLE (AMU);
- STICHTING NEDERLANDSE WETENSCHAPPELIJK ONDERZOEK INSTITUTEN (NWO);
- UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN (UiB);
- ALFRED-WEGENER-INSTITUT HELMHOLTZ-ZENTRUM FUR POLAR- UND MEERESFORSCHUNG (AWI);
- INSTITUT NATIONAL D’ENSEIGNEMENT SUPERIEUR POUR L’AGRICULTURE, L’ALIMENTATION ET L’ENVIRONNEMENT (IA);
- NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF IRELAND GALWAY (NUIG);
- IMAR – INSTITUTO DO MAR (IMAR);
- MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY (METU);
- MERCATOR OCEAN (MO);
- INSTYTUT OCEANOLOGII POLSKIEJ AKADEMII NAUK (IO PAN);
- ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI OCEANOGRAFIA E DI GEOFISICA SPERIMENTALE (OGS)