General objectives:
BlueAdapt will provide tools to assess the impacts of policy responses and communicate the results to a wide audience, including both policymakers and the public. A conceptual framework will be developed around existing models of One Health and Ecological Public Health, to help wider engagement with the complex nature of the issue. Horizons scanning and downscaled climate modelling will feed into lab based experiments and the development of simulations around how changes in climate variables, interacting with other environmental change, may influence the state of selected microbial pathogens of public health concern in coastal waters. Case studies will illustrate how One Health and Ecological Public Health concepts can be used to generate action and identify potential barriers to adaptation. Health impact assessment and cost-benefit analysis will inform appropriate action. BlueAdapt Innovation Slams and policy workshops will help deliver wider impact from the project including new-to-firm and new-to-market products and services.

CMCC role
CMCC participates in WP2, WP3, WP4, WP5, WP7, WP8 and WP9

Expected results
BlueAdapt will develop scenarios for coastal waters, drawing on horizon scanning approaches and apply the most recent climate change scenarios to European coastal waters building on state-of-the-art modelling. Climate model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project [1] will be the base of the multi-member, multi-model and multi-scenario approach to determine projected changes in essential climate variables of interest for bacterial and viral pathogen survival, evolution and transport to the end of the current century (see methods section for details). Also, the future coastal climate will be investigated based on changes in land use, as simulated by the high resolution CMCC general circulation model. Also, tools to assess the impacts of policy responses and communicate the results to a wide audience will be developed.