Seminar | July 19, 2019 – h. 12:00 pm CEST
Ca’ Foscari Challenge School, VEGA (Aula Radice, ground floor), Venice-Mestre

Speakers: Carmen Alvarez,  Postdoctoral Fellow, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CSP Division)
Introduced by David García León, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellow, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (RAAS Division)

Seasonal forecasts are essential tools to offer early-warning decision support, that can help to reduce the socio-economics related risk associated with anomalous events. Advances in statistical prediction are often linked with the enhance of understanding that usually leads to improve dynamical forecast. Thereby, both approaches are frequently combined in order to increase the robustness of the forecast. MEDSCOPE project (MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions) aims to improve the predictability of climate predictions from seasonal to decadal timescales over the Mediterranean area. One of the main lines of research of MEDSCOPE is to improve the extraction of relevant information from climate prediction systems and assess their robustness and uncertainty through a toolbox ”CSTools”. In this Toolbox, we are developing methodologies to extract usable information from predictions, producing tools for forecast verification, calibration, downscaling, ensemble member combination and selection that will be publicly released in a package and a Gitlab webpage. Here I show the CMCC contribution to the CSTools and some other key methods to improve the seasonal forecasts. The methods presented will be based on weather regimes, analogs of circulation, and a novel statistical-dynamical approach using the dynamical system theory.

Working language: English

Organizer
Fondazione CMCC – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici