CMCC Lectures 
04 December 2024 | h.16:00-17:00 CET
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Speaker: Gabriel Vecchi – Director of the High Meadows Environmental Institute at Princeton University

Moderator: Silvio Gualdi – CMCC Principal Scientist

Understanding and predicting hurricane activity (frequency, intensity, rainfall and track) changes is essential to developing adaptation and risk mitigation strategies, and confidence in prediction is often developed through evaluation of the past. We here explore past and future changes in hurricane activity. Past changes in global and basin-wide hurricane (at TC) frequency and intensity are dominated by the impact of the specific patterns of ocean temperature change that occurred, which differs considerably from projected future changes. Further, past and future multidecadal changes in TC track include substantial contributions from internal atmospheric variability, which can mask or exacerbate forced signals. Regional warming, and changes in winds and ocean circulation are also key drivers of regional TC-rainfall and sea level change, and can differ in projections from the recent past. That is, the connection between changes over recent decades/centuries and future changes over the next few decades is not straightforward – so that confidence in future predictions must be built somewhat indirectly, likely aided by fundamental understanding of processes and phenomena.

Gabriel Vecchi, Knox Taylor Professor of Geosciences at Princeton University, is the Director of the High Meadows Environmental Institute (HMEI)—with which CMCC has recently established a partnership—and Deputy Director of the Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System (CIMES) at Princeton University. His research focuses on the relationship between climatic changes and extreme weather events, including hurricanes, employing a combination of methods to better understand their variability and to strengthen detection and attribution.

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HOW TO PARTICIPATE
04 December 2024 | h.16:00-17:00 CET
To join the webinar, register here

The event is part of the CMCC Lectures webinar series, which presents frontier topics and solutions in climate sciences and action, through the insights of leading experts. The series provides a platform for distinguished scientists to showcase their cutting-edge research and engage in dialogue with peers and stakeholders.