Decadal prediction, a paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
A new field of study, is emerging in climate science.
It is called “decadal prediction” and lies seasonal/interannual forecasting and longer-term climate change projections, and focuses on time-evolving regional climate conditions over the next 10–30 years.
A paper published by the American Meteorological Society Online Journal describes an experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction; this experimental framework has been incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
These experiments will likely guide work in this emerging field over the next 5 years.
The article “Decadal Prediction. Can It Be Skillful?”, written by twenty scientists (among them Antonio Navarra, president of CMCC) and published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is among the most viewed articles of the month in the AMS’s website.
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