Damage caused by sea level rises could cost the EU and UK economies up to 872 billion Euros in total by the end of the century, according to a modelling study published in Scientific Reports by a team of scientists from Delft University of Technology, CMCC@Ca’Foscari, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. 

A new study published in Scientific Reports modelled the potential economic impacts of sea level rise for 271 European regions by 2100 under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5) with no new coastal protection measures implemented after 2015. Authors combined a previously developed economic model with data on projected sea-level rise impacts, investment trends, and the distribution of economic losses caused by 155 flooding events across Europe between 1995 and 2016. They estimated potential economic losses and gains compared to a scenario with no sea level rises and 2% annual economic growth across all regions. They also modelled the impact of targeted investment in different economic sectors on regional economies following sea level rises.

Authors of the study included Francesco Bosello, Principal Scientist and Director of the Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy at CMCC and Professor at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice.

The authors estimate that under a high emissions scenario sea level rise could cause 872 billion Euros of combined economic losses across the UK and EU by 2100, compared to a scenario of no sea level rises. They observed regional differences in the economic impacts of sea level rises, with the majority of economic losses — up to 21% regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 — concentrated in coastal regions such as Veneto and Emilia-Romagna in Italy and Zachodniopomorskie in Poland. Other regions that incurred relatively higher economic losses were concentrated around the Baltic Sea, the Belgian coast, western France and Greece. However, they found that inland regions — such as in Germany, Austria, and Hungary — experienced economic gains of up to 1% regional GDP by 2100. The authors propose that this could be due to production relocating from flooded coastal regions to inland regions.

Although targeted investment in the logistics, public services, construction, and utilities sectors had negligible impacts on the UK and EU economy as a whole under a high emissions scenario, it did reduce some regional losses with a negligible cost to the overall UK and EU economy. Regions that particularly benefitted from targeted investment were Lincolnshire, East Yorkshire, and Kent in the UK, Bremen and Weser-Ems in Germany, and West-Vlaanderen in Belgium.

Together, the findings highlight the need for region-specific economic policies to address the uneven impacts of sea levels on different regions and their economies.

For more information:
Cortés Arbués, I., Chatzivasileiadis, T., Ivanova, O. et al. Distribution of economic damages due to climate-driven sea-level rise across European regions and sectors. Sci Rep 14, 126 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48136-y