New paper with the contribution of CMCC researchers investigates the interaction between the diffusion of the potato in the Old World and the long-term impact of malaria in offsetting population and urbanization growth resulting from this innovation during the 18th and 19th centuries. The study highlights the interplay between environmental conditions, human health, and economic development.

Technological innovations historically contribute to socio-economic growth and development, but climate change can offset some of these benefits through its impacts, among which the diffusion of climate-related diseases.

In a paper recently published in Environmental & Resource Economics, a team of researchers from CMCC, University of Verona and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) highlight the interplay between technological change, public health, and development outcomes. Using the historical diffusion of the potato to the Old World between 1700 and 1900, authors examine how the presence of malaria reduced, and in some cases offset, the positive socio-economic effects – including the increase in population and urbanization – caused the diffusion of the newly discovered staple crop.

These findings also highlight the need to pay attention to some particular consequences related to climate change, ranging from the spread of infectious diseases to the impact on crop yields in particularly fragile areas of the world.

The study shows that although global breakthroughs in economic productivity and agricultural output have had, by and large, a positive impact on population growth and urbanization trends across the world, the extent to which such impacts have been realized at the local level is highly dependent on and influenced by the prevalence of infectious disease in each region. More generally, the paper demonstrates that diseases such as malaria are a blight not only on the public’s health but also on the broader socioeconomic development due to their disabling impact.

The positive impact of the agricultural sector innovation of the introduction of potato cultivation, from the New World to the Old World, on population and urbanization was heterogeneous: areas with no or very low malaria endemicity experienced a positive growth (about 9% more than areas non suitable for potato cultivation) while high endemic areas did not benefit from this trend. Authors hypothesize that this was due to the fact that farmers and other family members working outdoors in highly endemic areas were exposed to the risk of malaria infection which would put them out of work and result in lower agricultural output and lower economic development consequently.

CMCC researchers were able to match high resolution data on geographical distribution of areas suitable for potato cultivation with those for malaria transmission. They overlaid these data with historical records of population and urbanization to obtain first-hand evidence linking environmental conditions facilitating potato cultivation and malaria transmission to variations in population and urbanization.

The positive effect of new crops and agricultural breakthroughs on economic development, including the potato uptake in the Old World, have been shown before in literature. This paper, however, takes a step further and shows that the picture is more complicated when accounting for local environmental conditions that exacerbate the spread of infectious disease, such as malaria.

“Facing rapid changes in production technologies and practices, local policy makers and community leaders, in particular, can draw on the results of our analysis to adopt a more holistic approach to development by considering the interaction between environmental conditions, public health, and economic growth” says Soheil Shayegh, a scientist at RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE).

“Understanding the Nexus between the economy, the environment, and global public health by learning from history is an ever more crucial goal in the current global setting of climate change, global interconnectedness, and emerging infectious diseases” says Giacomo Falchetta, Research Fellow at CMCC and affiliated Research Scholar at IIASA.

“How can we benefit from technological innovation? In this paper, we shed light on the ways in which technological innovation can bring positive changes to our lives. However, we also recognize the importance of acknowledging the potential barriers to realizing such benefits, such as initial adverse health conditions. By doing so, we hope to contribute to a more informed and constructive dialogue around the role of technology in improving our well-being” affirms Maurizio Malpede, University of Verona, lead author of the study.

For more information:

Malpede, M., Falchetta, G. & Shayegh, S. Mosquitoes and Potatoes: How Local Climatic Conditions Impede Development. Environ Resource Econ 86, 851–892 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-023-00818-x