Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. A new study, involving CMCC researchers, looks at the effectiveness of climate change impact and adaptation strategies on rainfed barley production in the Almería Province, Spain.

The Mediterranean region is often signaled out as a climate change hotspot where adaptation efforts will be needed to address new climatic conditions and increase resilience. This is particularly true of the agricultural sector which may be one of the most affected by climate change.

A new study, involving an international team of researchers including from CMCC, assesses the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain.

The study chooses to focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low emissions pathway), SSP2-4.5 (intermediate emissions), and SSP5-8.5 (very high emissions). The choice of barley is particularly significant as this crop is one of the most resilient to water and temperature stress owing to a deep rooting system that can endure drought and help it adapt to stressful conditions better than other cereals.

By evaluating the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates, the study shows how average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century) occur, with soil water content being the main factor determining yields.

The study reveals that irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources and mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. In contrast, changing sowing dates was shown to have little beneficial effects on yield.

In conclusion, the study shows that “regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals.”

For more information:

Saretto, F.; Roy, B.; Encarnação Coelho, R.; Reder, A.; Fedele, G.; Oakes, R.; Brandimarte, L.; Capela Lourenço, T. Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 606. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050606