As gasoline prices rise, car users decrease their support for phasing out combustion engine cars. This is the main finding of the new CMCC study published in Nature Energy, which analyses the impact of energy prices on public acceptance of environmental measures in Italy and the USA.

The support of the population is extremely important when it comes to the implementation of political measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To what extent can fuel prices influence public acceptability of environmental measures and have an impact on support for climate policies?

The new study “Examining the effects of gasoline prices on public support for climate policies”, published in Nature Energy by Ireri Hernandez Carballo, a Post Degree researcher at CMCC and RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE) and a PhD student at Bocconi University, and Matthew Ryan Sisco of Princeton University, analyzes retail gasoline prices and individual-level survey data from Italian and U.S. metropolitan areas to respond to this research question, looking for a relationship between the two elements: short-term changes in gasoline prices and climate policy support.

Out of the various types of energy that consumers purchase, authors chose to study gasoline prices, being highly visible and engaged with by people frequently.

Results show that, when gasoline prices increase, support for phasing out combustion-engine cars decreases for individuals that currently use a car as their main mode of transportation. This is particularly true for lower-income people and individuals identifying themselves as more liberal: the latter have higher baseline levels of support for phasing out gasoline- and diesel-fuelled vehicles relative to more conservative individuals. However, as gasoline prices increase, support decreases more for this cluster.

With regards to other climate policies, such as funding renewable energy research, regulating CO₂ emissions or requiring companies to pay carbon taxes, there is no significant association between gasoline prices and public support for these policy actions.

The decreased prioritization of environmental protection as fuel prices increase, the authors explain, does not appear to be due to a reduction in concern for the environment – which is not associated with gasoline prices – but rather from increased economic and energy supply concerns.

“When gasoline prices are high, people tend to worry about the economy and impact on their budget, particularly if their main mode of transportation is a gasoline car,” says Ireri Hernandez Carballo, lead author of the study. “In times of economic uncertainty, it’s tough for individuals that depend on gasoline cars, a major purchase for most, to accept that their vehicle may become unusable in the future. Given our findings, we recommend for policy-makers to make alternative and environmentally-friendly modes of transportation more easily available, particularly when gasoline prices are high”

The research adds valuable information to the understanding of whether and how energy prices impact individuals’ support for climate policies, an important element to be considered by policymakers to design and implement such policies strategically and successfully.

For more information:
Hernandez Carballo, I., Sisco, M.R. Examining the effects of gasoline prices on public support for climate policies. Nat Energy (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-024-01449-2