The challenge of improving climate services, which provide important seasonal forecasts, so that these forecasts can satisfy societal needs through accurate, useful and verified forecasts is crucial, particularly as our understanding of climate evolves. 

Tools that communicate climate-related information to users – whether these be dam managers, irrigation consortia, or energy producers to name a few – are fast evolving. However, it is crucial that the quality of the provided information, along with economic, environmental and/or societal gains, is measured and verified to maximize societal benefits.

A new study, involving an international team of researchers including from the CMCC, introduces a new framework to evaluate and verify these climate services, based on work from the H2020 CLARA project. Researchers assessed the quality and usefulness of forecasts provided by five different climate services which used data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and aimed to support sectors like water management, agriculture, and energy production.

The results reveal differences in the performance and usefulness of forecasts across different variables, services, and sectors, highlighting a need to better connect scientific verification with user requirements.

Drawing on experiences from both service developers and users, the study offers recommendations for future evaluations proposing a structured approach to joint verification and evaluation, involving experts from various fields including climate science, hydrology, economics, and decision analysis.

For more information:

Crochemore, L., Materia, S., Delpiazzo, E., Bagli, S., Borrelli, A., Bosello, F., Contreras, E., Dalla Valle, F., Gualdi, S., Herrero, J., Larosa, F., Lopez, R., Luzzi, V., Mazzoli, P., Montani, A., Moreno, I., Pavan, V., Pechlivanidis, I., Tomei, F., Villani, G., Photiadou, C., Polo, M. J., & Mysiak, J. (2024). A framework for joint verification and evaluation of seasonal climate services across socio-economic sectors. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (published online ahead of print 2024). https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0026.1