Climate change is set to impact water availability around the world, not least of which in the Mediterranean region. A new study, involving CMCC President Antonio Navarra, looks at the impacts on groundwater discharge, at both global and local scales, revealing how a significant portion of reductions will be driven by climate-related factors.

A recent study, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, highlights the significant effects of climate change on spring discharge in the Mediterranean region. By focusing on two springs, the study indicates that their discharge, on a multi-decadal trend scale, could decrease by 9 % to 11 % by 2040-2070 compared to that of the past few decades and that the decline is more influenced by climatic factors than by specific hydrogeological features.

The research, involving CMCC President Antonio Navarra, focuses on predicting long-term changes in spring water flow under different climate scenarios, in the process revealing the importance of addressing climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean region and beyond.

The study is particularly innovative as it moves away from a focus on climate change impacts on surface water, which has been covered extensively in other research, instead focusing on the effects on groundwater discharge.

Graphical abstract of the research. Source: Casati et al 2024

This has the potential to provide crucial insights for water utility agencies, helping them plan and implement large-scale infrastructure projects over the coming decades that mitigate the effects of climate change on groundwater availability.

Finally, the study allows for speculation that similar trends could be expected in other springs within Mediterranean-type climates worldwide, further emphasizing the need for sustainable management of groundwater resources, especially in regions that are heavily reliant on spring water for public supply.

Research highlights:

• Long-term effects of climate change on spring discharge under a Mediterranean climate
• Statistical correlation analyses between spring discharge and recharge-related data
• Application of correlation factors to RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 future weather scenarios
• Estimation of long-term spring discharge scenarios for the 2040–2070 period
• A projected 9–11 % decrease in flow rate is expected to affect the studied springs.

For more information:

T. Casati, A. Navarra, M. Filippini, A. Gargini, Assessing the long-term trend of spring discharge in a climate change hotspot area, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 957, 2024, 177498, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177498