The global food system is at a crossroads, playing a key role in greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, and biodiversity loss, while millions still struggle with food insecurity. A new study led by CMCC explores how future global vegetable oil demand could impact forests and key ecosystems, adding crucial insights into the sustainability debate.

New research published in Global Change Biology highlights the impact of increasing vegetable oil consumption under the EAT-Lancet diet on global land use, deforestation, and greenhouse gas emissions.

The research, titled “Pressure on Global Forests: Implications of Rising Vegetable Oils Consumption under the EAT-Lancet Diet”, examines the potential consequences of shifting dietary patterns recommended by the EAT-Lancet Commission – a global team of experts in nutrition, public health, sustainable agriculture, and climate change.

Their proposed “planetary diet” aims to reduce consumption of resource-intensive foods such as meat and eggs while increasing global per capita intake of unsaturated oils (such as soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed) by 67% and maintaining current palm oil consumption levels.

Using a spatially explicit land allocation algorithm, the study assesses how the expected global population of 9.2 billion people by 2050 might drive demand for vegetable oils and its associated environmental impacts on carbon-rich ecosystems and land-use change emissions.

The environmental cost of rising vegetable oil demand

By 2050, global vegetable oil production for food is expected to increase by 74%, requiring 317 million hectares of land – 68% more than if current consumption levels were maintained. This expansion could drive large-scale deforestation, with up to 120 million hectares of forest lost and an 87% rise in land-use change emissions, reaching 1,210 Megatonnes of CO₂ per year. However, the EAT-Lancet diet’s proposed reduction in other high-impact foods could help free up land and lower overall global food-related emissions.

A critical finding of the study is that replacing palm oil with alternative vegetable oils would further escalate land demand to 385 million hectares, exacerbating deforestation. To mitigate these impacts, ensuring sustainable and deforestation-free vegetable oil production is crucial for protecting carbon-rich ecosystems.

A new perspective on palm oil and sustainability

Palm oil remains at the center of sustainability debates due to its association with deforestation. However, this study – building on previous research – highlights that replacing palm oil with alternative oils could have unintended environmental consequences, including increased land-use pressures, deforestation, and greenhouse gas emissions.

“One key finding of this study highlights the crucial role of ensuring sustainable production for all vegetable oils, alongside the growing importance of certification schemes for deforestation-free supply chains,” says lead author Maria Vincenza Chiriacò, head of the research line on carbon neutrality in the land sector and climate policy targets at CMCC. “According to the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, 4.8 million hectares – about 19% of global palm oil production – are certified as sustainable, meaning they do not contribute to agricultural-driven deforestation. Expanding sustainability efforts across the entire palm oil sector and other vegetable oils is essential to preventing biodiversity loss and the conversion of carbon-rich lands, thus ensuring a sustainable oil consumption in our diets.”

Innovative insights on food systems and climate policy

This study sheds light on the often-overlooked impact of vegetable oil production on land-use change and deforestation. It also explores the environmental consequences of replacing palm oil – an issue with little existing research – providing new insights into the trade-offs involved in shifting towards a more sustainable global food system.

“Our results emphasize that the increasing pressure on land resources and ecosystems requires immediate action to ensure that agricultural expansion does not come at the cost of environmental degradation,” says M. Cristina Rulli, professor of hydrology and food and water security at Politecnico di Milano. “Effective policies should align economic growth with ecological preservation, encouraging sustainable production methods and conscious consumer behaviors to help protect our planet for future generations.”

The research was coordinated by CMCC’s Maria Vincenza Chiriacò, with contributions from M. Cristina Rulli and Nikolas Galli from Politecnico di Milano, as well as CMCC’s Melissa Latella. CMCC researchers are committed to investigating the links between food production, sustainability, and climate change. Through projects like FOODCLIC and SWITCH, they provide scientific insights to support informed and sustainable food choices.

As global demand for vegetable oils continues to rise, this study highlights the urgent need for integrated policies that promote deforestation-free agricultural practices, sustainable land management, and responsible consumption choices.

More information:
Chiriacò et al., 2025. Pressure on global forests: Implications of rising vegetable oils consumption under the EAT-Lancet diet, Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70077, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.70077