In Copenhagen in December 2009 182 countries will gather in search
of a global agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol lapsing in
2012. The most important emitters of CO2 are currently preparing the
negotiating texts which will form the basis of the discussion at the end of this year.

The likely involvement of the United States into the post-Kyoto
agreement represents a decisive step forward
into the debate of climate change policies. Many other industrialized countries – such as
the EU member states

– have already committed to reduce their emissions
drastically in the coming decades, but it is known that this will not
be sufficient if the emerging economies – like China and India – do not
commit themselves in the same direction.

A recent research released by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
(FEEM) in collaboration with Organization for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD), and presented in Venice on 15 June 2009 at the
Conference on Coalitions for Climate Cooperation (organized by the Center
for Climate Governance and CMCC in collaboration with ETH Zürich), goes
even further: it demonstrates that humanity will not succeed in containing the
increase in global temperature within 2 °C if an
agreement to reduce greenhouse gases involving the whole planet is not reached.

Fig 1: CO2 emissions at world level. The green line represents the trend of CO2 emissions in the
absence of an agreement on climate change (reaching in 2100 about 3
times the pre-industrial levels). The blue line represents the
trend when all countries of the globe agree to limit their emissions (consolidation by 2050 around 2 times the
pre-industrial levels). Click on the image to enlarge

Taking into account both the expected damage from climate change
and the costs of reducing greenhouse gases for the different countries of the world, the research interprets this figure as the incentive for the countries
to participate or not to international agreements on climate mitigation. The
researchers then built several possible coalitions of countries and
show how, even though the participants were able to agree to reduce
their greenhouse gas emissions down to zero, their efforts would be
nullify because of the countries that take advantage of the fact that
they have no restriction.

Fig.2: Damages due to climate change in the absence of climate
policies. The economic losses in 2100, expressed as a
percentage of GDP, are very uneven across the different regions of the
world: just over 1% for CHINA (China, including Taiwan), USA (United
States) and AUCANZ (Australia, Canada and New Zealand) to 7-8% for
WEURO (Western EU countries) and for SASIA (South Asia, including
India). Click on the image to enlarge

Indeed, in addition to the involvement of China and India which,
as already mentioned, is essential, the non-participation of poor emitting countries areas such as Africa, Latin America or the Middle
East, would preclude any possibility of success of the climate policies.
This is because the countries that remain outside of these agreements
will most likely host the industry – and the emissions “in excess” – of the signatories countries. Specifically, the research shows that the increase in
global temperature could be contained within the threshold of 2 ° C in
2050, although some groups of countries decide not to participate, but
that such a temperature rise can not be averted in 2100, if all the
countries of the world do not adhere to an international protocol on GHG mitigation.

The work carried out by FEEM and OECD is one of the many
scientific papers presented at the Venetian Conference on 15-16 June 2009. The
other prestigious international speakers will discuss other possible
forms of cooperation, all aimed at ensuring that the negotiations in
Copenhagen reach their ambitious target: ensuring that future generationscan live in a world where cliamte alteration does not lead to
catastrophic consequences for the environment and therefore for the
human race.

• Visit the web site of the conference on Coalitions for Climate Cooperation. A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Post 2012 Climate Policy
• Download the presentation “On The Incentive to Participate in and the
  Stability of Climate Coalitions. A Global Assessment” of Carlo CARRARO,
  Valentina Bosetti, Enrica DE CIAN, Emanuele Massetti and Massimo Tavoni
  – Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei [255 Kb]